Renewing a fleet contract three months early to lock a price
Fuel and lease rates were moving in opposite directions. Renewing early cost a negotiating position and bought eighteen months of certainty. The spreadsheet said yes; the counterparty relationship said be careful.
The decision timeline
Three moments, kept separate. What became known later sits in its own column so it cannot be read back into the reasoning.
Known at the time
- Market rates up 11% in nine months; offer at +6%
- Fifteen-day window, against an eight-week procurement policy
- Two routes under review for closure, concluding in September
- A fuel duty change announced for January with unclear pass-through
Decided, and why
- Signed early, because +6% fit the fixed budget line and the market was trending against us
- Negotiated a four-vehicle return clause, because the route review was unresolved
- Accepted inherited fuel pass-through terms — not a decision so much as an omission
Known later
- Rates rose another 9%; the early signature saved roughly 14%
Members see the full outcome.
Trust and provenance
What we checked, and what we did not.
The decision context
| Problem | A 34-vehicle lease was up for renewal in July. In April the lessor offered a rate hold if we signed immediately, 6% above the existing rate, against a market that had moved 11% in nine months. |
|---|---|
| Deadline | The offer was open for fifteen days. |
| Stakes | Moderate |
| Decision-maker | Operations Director with CFO co-signature above a spend threshold. |
Constraints
| Budget | Annual fleet line was fixed at the start of the year; a 6% rise fit, 11% did not. |
|---|---|
| Time | Fifteen days to accept, against a normal procurement cycle of eight weeks. |
| Information | No visibility on the lessor's utilisation or their incentive to hold the rate. |
| Authority | Could not run a competitive tender inside fifteen days under the company's own procurement policy. |
| External | A fuel duty change was announced for the following January with unclear pass-through terms. |
Alternatives
Options considered, and the stated reason each rejected option was rejected.
Evidence, reasoning and outcome
The remaining six field groups — evidence, reasoning, action, outcome, reflection and transferability — are available to members.
- Nine months of market rate movement from two broker quotes
- Internal utilisation data showing 78% average vehicle utilisation
- Fits the fixed annual fleet budget line
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Rights and licensing
Published terms for this case.
| Consent | Creator confirms permission to publish in redacted form. |
|---|---|
| Licence | Non-exclusive, perpetual licence to publish and monetise. |
| Anonymisation | Lessor and employer names redacted. Absolute values expressed as percentages. |
| Compensation | Eligible for the creator revenue pool under the published allocation rule. |
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